Iraq's voices of pessimism

Life may appear to be improving in Iraq, reports the BBC's Mike Sergeant, but while most Iraqis are desperate to believe the war is over, many still worry about what the future may hold.

More than 25,000 people are thought to have been killed in Iraq in 2007

When I first came to Iraq in the summer of 2007, it was a very dark and dangerous place.

Bombs were exploding every few hours.

In a typical day, dozens of bodies were dumped on the streets of Baghdad. Thousands were killed every month.

The events of recent days have shocked many Iraqis and brought back painful memories.

Every attack is an uncomfortable reminder of the many risks that still lie ahead.

Spirited

A couple of weeks ago, things seemed a little brighter here.

Military commanders were keen to show off what people in the news business like to simplify as "life getting back to normal".

We attended one of many media events carefully designed to give the sense of things looking up.

A dozen or so reporters and cameramen were driven in military convoy to Shula, a suburb previously said to have been one of the most violent in the capital.

On arrival, we were handed a leaflet welcoming us on what was described as "a walking tour - honouring the improvements of the Shula area".

So, as instructed, we were briskly marched off to "honour" those improvements.

The brochure told us exactly what we were about to see: "Terrorists tried to destroy the best chicken restaurant in Shula", it read.

"They did not succeed.

"They also tried to destroy the spirit of Shula. They failed in this regard as well."

Darkness and light

Then we watched a football match.

The teams wore brightly coloured shirts and played enthusiastically on a nicely prepared grass pitch.

The crowd was almost entirely made up of heavily armed US and Iraqi soldiers.

One American colonel told me that he was "shocked" by how good life was here.

"People are still out there who want to do bad things," said another US soldier "but they are on the run."

US troops on the ground often talk about "good guys" and "bad guys".

They sometimes portray the struggle in Iraq as a battle between the vast majority of "ordinary Iraqis" and a small minority of "terrorists" who want to destroy progress and turn back the clock to the chaos of two years ago.

Six years of war has taught their commanders that things are almost always more confusing.

This patchwork country of intermingled faiths and traditions is not easy to divide into the "forces of light" on one side and "darkness" on the other.

Cultural re-awakening

In most areas and on most days you can see real improvements.

Iraqis are feeling more confident about being out on the streets at night

We went to a nightclub in what once would have been a charming old house in the centre of Baghdad.

Men sit around drinking alcohol watching women dance. These activities might have got them killed in the past.

In other parts of the city, restaurants, shops and galleries are reopening.

Cultural life is starting to blossom again. The sound of traditional Iraqi songs can be heard once more.

We spent an hour at a music institute in the centre of Baghdad.

In 2006 and 2007, the students had to play in secret and hide their instruments in plastic bags on the way to school. Now they are confident enough to perform their ballads openly.

The people I have met desperately want to believe the war is over

I am told, however, that before 2003, most of the musicians were girls.

When we visited there was only one, Hazzar Bassam. She plays an instrument called the joza, made from the shell of a coconut.

"It's true there are generally fewer explosions now," she told me, "but the violence may be coming back again. We are still afraid."

Waiting for revenge

Recent attacks have led others to question the accepted international narrative of recent months that Iraq is definitely "getting better" while Afghanistan is "getting worse".

About 140,000 US soldiers are currently based in Iraq

US generals have always been very wary of declaring victory. They remember President Bush's horribly premature "mission accomplished" speech after the US invasion.

Hundreds are still dying violently here every month.

The people I have met desperately want to believe the war is over.

Voices of pessimism, though, are not that hard to find.

One Iraqi friend told me that there will be many scores to settle once the US military leaves.

"Most people are sick and tired of violence, but some are just waiting for the right moment to take their revenge," he said.

"People in this country never forget, particularly if their relatives were brutally killed."

Everyone knows the Americans are leaving. The big unknown is what happens when they do.

Has Iraq really turned the corner? Or are most of the gunmen and bombers simply biding their time and waiting for the power struggles to come?

It is very hard to make predictions about a country like this. But, to think that Iraq is a problem that somehow has now been "solved", might be to repeat the historic mistake of simplifying a very complicated place.

From Our Own Correspondent was broadcast on Saturday, 14 March, 2009 at 1130 GMT on BBC Radio 4. Please check the programme schedules for World Service